Best Surprises, Biggest Disappointments in College Basketball
The first two and a half months of the 2021-22 college basketball season have been electric to say the least. Through the first 11 weeks of the AP Poll, there have already been four different teams claiming the No. 1 national rank. We’ve seen a plethora of teams completely surpass expectations and put the committee on notice come tournament time, and others who have greatly underachieved through the first half of the season.
Overachievers
Iowa State Cyclones
In his first season as the Cyclones head coach, TJ Otzelberger has brought his team to national relevancy much quicker than anticipated. Iowa State was projected last in the preseason Big 12 standings coming off of a 2-22 season and finishing 0-18 in Big 12 play, the first Big 12 team to go winless in conference play since TCU in 2014. Rightfully so, most thought it would take Otzelberger a few years to get the Cyclones back to the NCAA Tournament. Well through the first half of the season, Iowa State has burst on to the scene with a 14-4 record and claiming the #15 rank in the latest AP poll. Most of this success is credited to the defense, as the Cyclones rank 9th nationally in defensive efficiency (.854 points allowed per possession) and seventh in steals per possession (13.5%). Stellar play from newly added transfer Izaiah Brockington (Penn State) has also paved the way for the staggering success Iowa State has had so far this year. Few were too sure about who the go-to guy on offense would be for the Cyclones during the preseason, but Brockington has stepped up in a big way. The lefty guard is averaging 16.2 points and 8 rebounds per contest on 47.6% shooting from the field. He is a great driver to the basket with the left hand from the perimeter and spaces the floor well. The Cyclones do have some offensive struggles as they rank 162nd in offensive efficiency (1.001 points per possession) and 158th in 3-point percentage (33.8%). Both woes have been exposed against teams that can get through the Iowa State defense and force the Cyclones to score to keep up, like a 79-66 loss at Oklahoma and a 72-60 loss at Texas Tech. The Cyclones will have to improve their scoring offense as a whole as the season progresses, but so far the defensive powerhouse that Iowa State is has been able to propel them into a top 15 team in the country.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin was another team that wasn’t even receiving votes to be in the preseason Top 25 and weren’t even thought to be a tournament team come March. But halfway through the season, the Badgers are ranked #8 in the latest AP Poll and a projected 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Johnny Davis has been the catalyst for this dangerous Wisconsin team and has looked like one of the best players in the country and a 2022 NBA Draft lottery pick. The National Player of the Year frontrunner is averaging 22.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals a night to lead Wisconsin to a 15-2 record. Davis is also a great defender and can pass and create shots for his teammates. After a freshman season averaging 7.0 points and 4.1 rebounds on 24 minutes a game, Davis has made a name for himself as one of the best players in college basketball and a legit NBA prospect. Even when Davis isn’t at his best, Wisconsin can still find a way to win games. Against #16 Ohio State on January 13, the Buckeyes were able to hold Davis to 14 points on 4-18 shooting from the field. Even with their star player cold, theBadgers looked to their veterans. Senior leader Brad Davison went for 25 and Tyler Wahl went for 20 to thrust Wisconsin to a 78-68 victory. If Wisconsin can find other guys to rely on for consistent scoring besides Davis, they’re not going to be a team anyone wants to play.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona was set for a rebuilding period with the hire of Tommy Lloyd as their next head coach and coming off an 11-9 record in conference play a bad PAC-12 in 2020-21. The Cats had young talent, but there weren’t many basketball fans who thought they’d develop into a possible NCAA Tournament 1 seed this quickly. Similar to Wisconsin, Arizona has a National Player of the Year candidate of their own in sophomore Bennedict Mathurin. The 6’6 210 pound guard can do it all. Mathurin is averaging 18 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists a game while shooting 50% from the floor and 36.3% from 3 point range on 6 attempts a night. Mathurin is an elite athlete with a ridiculous vertical that can also pass and defend at a very solid level. Aside from the superstar Mathurin, the 7’1 junior big man Christian Koloko has been a monster to deal with down low. Averaging 13.3 points and 7.1 rebounds on 64% shooting, he has given the Wildcats a great deal of versatility on the offensive side of the ball. Koloko is also 7th in the country in blocks per game (3.3) and is an X-factor to Arizona’s elite defense which ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency (.834 points allowed per possession). The Wildcats know how to play as a team and move the ball to get the best shot possible, one of the major reasons they sit at #3 in the latest AP Poll. They lead the nation in assists per game (21.9) and have three guys averaging over 3 assists per contest.
Disappointments
Michigan Wolverines
Coming into this season as the favorite to win the Big 10, Juwan Howard’s ship has not been so smooth sailing throughout the season. After being ranked 6th in the preseason AP Poll, the Wolverines now sit at 2-3 in Big 10 play and 8-7 overall on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. Coming into the year with the #3 ranked recruiting class headlined by five stars Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate, no one really took into consideration what Michigan lost after last year. Michigan lost five out of probably their six most important players in Austin Davis, Franz Wagner, Isaiah Livers, Mike Smith, and Chaundee Brown. Most thought the incoming talent would be enough to replace the losses, but it has been a tough go for the Wolverines so far. Caleb Houstan, poised to be the star of this group, just hasn’t been good at all this season. The former five star recruit is averaging 9.7 points and 1.5 assists per game on 38% shooting from the field and 32% from 3. The confidence hasn’t been there, and the preseason projected lottery pick is definitely going to need another season in Ann Arbor if he wants to make a case for himself as a real NBA prospect. They brought in Coastal Carolina transfer Devante’ Jones in hopes he would replace the facilitator role of Mike Smith from last season, but it hasn’t really worked out. The Wolverines don’t have a guy who can really create offense when sets they run are closed off by the defense like they did last year. There’s no go-to guy Michigan can rely on to score when they need it most, and that’s probably the main reason they haven’t been able to keep up in big games. The Wolverines rank 10th in the Big 10 in 3-point percentage (33.6%), 10th in points per game (72.1) and 13th in free throw percentage (68%). Juwan Howard needs to build an identity for his team to play around if they want an at-large bid in the tournament, and time is running out.
Texas Longhorns
Texas came into the year expected to be a national championship contender. Ranked #5 in the preseason poll, and I had them ranked as high as #2 in my preseason top 25, it’s not looking like things are as glamorous as Chris Beard was hoping for in his first season in Austin. Texas currently sits at 13-5 and about to drop out of the AP poll. The Longhorns are 0-3 against currently ranked opponents and have dropped 3 out of their last 4 games, including a 66-65 loss to 10-7 Kansas State at home, in which the Longhorns were held scoreless in the final three and a half minutes of the game. After landing 3 of the top 5 transfers this offseason in Marcus Carr (Minnesota), Timmy Allen (Utah), and Tre Mitchell (UMass), the Longhorns gained a lot of attention on the national scale with the basket of new talent they brought in. The issue is these guys aren’t molding into the team many analysts and fans, including myself, thought they would. Marcus Carr, thought to break out onto the scene this year and enter the National Player of the Year conversation, just hasn’t been as consistent as most hoped he would. He averages 10.8 points and 3.5 assists per game on 40% shooting and 32% shooting from outside. No one has really stepped up as leader for this group, and they lack any identity or consistency on offense. Their leading scorer, Timmy Allen, sits at 11.7 points a game and they only have three guys averaging in double figures. Team chemistry hasn’t been there all season and it’s not looking like this team is going anywhere good. There is still time for this team to turn its season around, but watching them over the past few weeks, there doesn’t seem to be any fire and grit in the Texas locker room.
Memphis Tigers
Penny Hardaway could be on his way out of Memphis after it’s looking like the Tigers are in for another disappointing season. After an awful first three quarters of the 2020-21 season, Memphis won 11 out of their final 13 games en route to an NIT championship. After such a strong finish, the Tigers had national championship aspirations with the #1 ranked recruiting class. Two of the top players in the 2022 class, Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren, both decided to reclass into 2021 and commit to Memphis. Bates and Duren are both generational prospects who were expected to lead the superiority Memphis was deemed to show. Duren has been very good, showcasing his abilities as an elite rebounder and shot blocker. The 6’11 250 pound monster is a great athlete who has shown flashes of being a problem at the next level. Even with the horrible season Memphis has had, Duren is still a projected top 10 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Bates, however, hasn’t been as amazing for the most part. He’s clearly struggled in his first year in collegiate basketball. Still 17 years old, Bates looked like he may not have been ready for high Division I basketball just yet, but he’s been playing very well as of late. The prodigy struggled with injury early in his freshman season, but Bates has been finding his stride as of late. Over his last three games, he is averaging 12.3 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 58.3% from 3 on 13 attempts. Aside from those two, it hasn’t been pretty. The Tigers have shown flashes of their true potential, like running through then #6 Alabama 92-78 and shooting 53% from the field as a team. But they’ve also looked like a team that doesn’t even deserve to be in the NIT, earning losses to 7-8 Tulane and 5-13 Georgia. The Tigers sit at 9-7, and Hardaway is probably on the hottest seat in college basketball.
(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
