2023 MLB Pre-Season Awards Predictions
We are officially less than one week away from Opening Day. Fans were able to experience a tournament for the ages with the 2023 World Baseball Classic, which ended with a 3-2 Japanese victory over the United States.
Players who competed for their countries in the WBC are pouring back into Spring Training for a couple of days before packing their bags for Opening Day. The new year means guys will take the reigns as the best player, pitcher, rookie, and more.
Here are my early picks – both a frontrunner and a darkhorse – for the 2023 MLB award winners.
American League MVP
Frontrunner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Beginning with what I would like to call an obvious one is Shohei Ohtani as the AL MVP. The irony of this prediction? He was my frontrunner, just like most others, even before his outstanding performance in the WBC. Ohtani hit for a .435 and a 1.345 on-base plus slugging (OPS) percentage with four doubles, a home run, and 10 walks.
On the mound? 1.86 earned run average (ERA) and 11 strikeouts in nine and two-thirds innings. Simply video game numbers. After winning the award in ’22, Shohei is looking to repeat and possibly send the Angels to the playoffs in the process.
Darkhorse: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
After a monster 2021 season, Vladdy Jr. took a bit of a step back in his ’22 campaign. It was nothing to shake a stick at, just not as strong. The Blue Jays went out and acquired Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt over the winter, so they should help ease the pressure off of Jr.
We all know what Vladdy can accomplish when he is at his best. The key for the big guy? Hit the ball in the air. Once he can do this on a day-to-day basis no matter who is pitching, Vlad Jr. is going to be unstoppable.
National League MVP
Frontrunner: Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
Soto was dealt at the 2022 Trade Deadline in what was a huge shock to the community. The Nationals had it coming for them, as Soto declined their offer for an extension and the current roster is below-average and not going anywhere. They shipped the outfielder out west, where Soto played 52 games and hit .236 with a .778 OPS, six homers, sixteen runs batted in (RBI), and a 130 OPS+.
While Soto was not putting up his normal numbers, he was still being efficient at the plate, doing everything he can to get on base. The team also lost Fernando Tatis Jr. in August due to his PED suspension. The team was not scoring and they were losing games. Flash forward to now, and the Padres have Tatis back, along with newly-signed Xander Bogaerts. Soto has guys around him and will be back as a perennial hitter in the league.
Darkhorse: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
After struggling in his first year with the Mets in ’21, Lindor exploded in 2022, returning to his former self. Lindor slashed .270/.339/.449 (.788 OPS) in 161 games, along with 26 home runs and 107 RBIs – as a shortstop. Defensively, Lindor produced 13 outs above average.
The New York nerves are clearly out the window. Look for Lindor to take his game to the next level in 2023 as the leader of this New York Mets squad.
American League Cy Young
Frontrunner: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
One of the biggest offseason storylines, Jacob deGrom left the New York Mets to sign a five-year, 185 million dollar deal with the Texas Rangers. Obviously, deGrom needs to just stay healthy. His injuries have caused fans to have concerns. And, rightfully so. He simply cannot pitch more than 100 innings.
However, when deGrom IS healthy, he is undoubtedly the best player in the league. A 100+ mile per hour fastball coupled with a hard slider, changeup, and curveball? He is different. If deGrom is healthy in 2023, expect him to dominate in his first full season with the Rangers and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Darkhorse: Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
A guy that the league and its fans have somewhat forgotten about, Lucas Giolito.
There is no way to sugarcoat it: the past couple of years for the White Sox have been brutal. A solid season in 2020 and 2021, yet first-round exits. In 2022, they completely fell off a cliff.
Tony La Russa was never the answer to begin with, but he was dealing with numerous health issues in ’22. Giolito simply was not getting what he needed. He was working through a dumpster fire.
Ahead of the 2023 season, Giolito has lost 35 pounds. Prior to 2022, the righty aimed to bulk up. Naturally, he did worse, as he was trying to pitch like someone he was not. After shedding the weight, Giolito is back to his former self.
Additionally, La Russa is out and Pedro Grifol is in. It is a new face for the South Side, especially Lucas Giolito, who is in for a big bounce-back.
National League Cy Young
Frontrunner: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
After a dominant 2022 season, it is hard not to have Sandy Alcantara as the frontrunner. He started 32 games and logged a 2.32 ERA with a .98 WHIP and 207 strikeouts. He dominated from start to finish. He has been healthy for the past three full seasons, and he will look to continue that trend in 2023.
To help, general manager Kim Ng acquired Luis Arraez from Minnesota and signed Jean Segura in free agency. These guys will play big parts in the Marlins’ offensive game, taking the pressure off of Alcantara.
Darkhorse: Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
Julio Urias has simply dominated since the start of the 2019 season. His work has gone under the radar, as well. In 495 and one-third innings since March 2019, Urias has pitched to a 2.63 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and a 160 ERA+, which is 60 percent above league average. It is quite remarkable that the southpaw from Mexico has not received more recognition.
Part of the reason has been that the Dodgers have been so dominant, roster-wise. Do not get me wrong, they still are, but they lost Tyler Anderson to Angels, their Freeway Series rivals. Tony Gonsolin is out until late April with an ankle sprain. Clayton Kershaw is not what he once was. Urias has a chance to put this staff on his back and let the world know what he is all about. Look for him to do just that.
American League Rookie of the Year
Frontrunner: Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox signed Yoshida as part of their offseason where they lost Xander Bogaerts, but extended Devers and signed guys like Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen. Yoshida, 29, has spent the past seven seasons in Japan. Like Ohtani, he also participated in the WBC for Japan. In the tournament, he hit .409 and was a run producer, driving in 13 and hitting a clutch three-run home run in the semifinal.
Initially, there was speculation that Yoshida would lead off for Boston. After seeing his play in the WBC, it is looking more and more likely that he will clean up. Yoshida struck out a mere 41 times in 515 plate appearances in 2022 in Japan. His bat-to-ball skills are phenomenal, as he is always making contact. The ball jumps off of his bat, despite his small physique. His swing will play well at Fenway Park, as he can hit to all fields.
Darkhorse: Oswald Peraza, New York Yankees
Most of the talk out of St. Petersburg, Florida this spring has centered around the battle for shortstop between Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. Most Yankees fans want to see the hometown, Delbarton kid in Anthony Volpe. He has raw power, incredible speed, and a phenomenal work ethic. Guys like Aaron Judge have gone out to say that he is very mature for his age.
I do not blame you, Yankees fans. But people forget that Volpe has spent little time in Triple-A and Oswald Peraza was the go-to guy in October last season. He has spent time at the Major League level in the biggest moments. Yet to breakout, he just might this season if given the proper and deserved opportunity. All the pressure is on Volpe, but Peraza might have his time to shine.
National League Rookie of the Year
Frontrunner: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
There is no other way to put it: Corbin Carroll is a STUD. After signing an eight-year, 111-million dollar extension this winter, the Arizona outfielder is ready to go. In 32 games during ’22, Carroll posted a 133 OPS+, a 130 wRC+, and a .830 OPS. He is the fastest guy in the majors (literally), with a 30.1 feet/second run. He has the potential to lead the league in both triples and stolen bases, and he could win a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger while he is at it. Carroll is going to explode in 2023.
Darkhorse: Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers
Another guy to keep an eye on is outfielder Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell, 24, will most likely make the Brewers’ Opening Day roster after OF Tyler Naquin and 2B Keston Hiura were told that they would be cut. Mitchell made his debut as a September call-up and raked during his short tenure with the team. He has raw power, top-end speed, and a cannon. As long as he puts the ball in the air, Mitchell will be a name to watch as the season progresses.
