The Democratic Primaries Heat Up
With less than a year until the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic primaries are heating up, as a clear division is noticed within the ever-changing party. The leading presidential hopefuls competed on October 15th in the fourth debate of the primary, and it was interesting to see how the frontrunners interacted as they had to clear space for themselves at the top of the polls.
The standings as of October 24th, 2019 have Former Vice President Joe Biden at 27%, Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts at 23%, Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont at 15%, and sitting fourth is Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg at 7%. The October debate was a good sign of what to expect from the democrats going forward. The hot topics such as Impeachment, Medicare-For-All, involvement in Syria, gun control, and abortion rights were discussed.
From left: Sen. Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Mayor Pete Buttegieg
Another very important thing in this race is news coverage, more news, and publicity often correlates to more support. As expected, the top three candidates in the poll are the top three in news coverage. Contrary to this idea is Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who sits tenth in the polls is Veteran Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii, but she is number four when it comes to news coverage.
This spike in media attention is a result of former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton accused her of being a Russian operative. Gabbard tweeted, “You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain.”
Though media coverage is crucial, donations and contributions are even more important. Bernie Sanders leads with $25 Million (last quarter: $18 Million), second is Elizabeth Warren with $24.6 Million (last quarter: $19.2 Million), and third is surprisingly Pete Buttigieg with $19.1 Million ($24.9 million last quarter). Buttigieg and Biden both took heavy hits from the last quarter.
The more realistic thing about the primary has to be the difference between moderates and progressives that could possibly tear the votes in two. Biden’s unstable lead is contributed to the fact that the more progressive candidates (Warren and Sanders) are splitting the democratic vote. If Sanders or Warren want to have a shot at the presidency, one might need to drop out to support the other. Biden will need the support of his fellow moderates to fend off Warren and Sanders. The last debate proved to help Biden’s cause as other candidates went after Senator Warren. If Biden can regain some ground in the upcoming debate (November 20th), he should be the candidate.
Though the election is a year away, it is clear that some candidates are a long shot at this point. Eight democrats dropped out of the race early, headed by New York governor Bill De Blasio, Beto O’Rourke, and Eric Swalwell. New Jersey Senator, Cory Booker, also is struggling as last month his campaign was on life support for money. Though he survived, he will struggle to thrive forward in this race, but he also has a threat in the form of Dr. Rik Mehta who is challenging his senate seat.
If anyone wants a shot in this race, the fifth debate has to be the time to do so, by then if the candidates with less support aren’t challenging for the front five spots, it might as well be over for them.
Though the election is a year away, it’s never to early to see who the candidates are, it’s important to be involved to secure a future for the nation.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/2020-presidential-candidates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/democratic-polls.html
